June 11, 2025: What the GOP megabill’s path to July 4 could look like

Good morning, all, 

It’s still not clear exactly how—and how much—the Senate will change the House-passed Republican megabill. So, today, we’re focused on the timeline.

Some reporting suggests Republicans may not meet a self-imposed deadline to send their massive reconciliation package to the President by July 4. Indeed, news that the U.S. won’t hit the debt ceiling before mid-August eases some of the pressure to move fast (reminder: they’re raising the debt ceiling via their reconciliation megabill). 

That said: House Speaker Mike Johnson is still pushing for the Independence Day target. Not to mention, as we’ve noted before, big reconciliation efforts tend to age like milk—or, put less grossly, more time typically makes a reconciliation package harder to get over the finish line. 

Long story short: there remains a path for this bill to become law by July 4, and we’ve outlined what that path could look like so folks can be prepared for the next few weeks—see below. 

As always, we’ll keep you updated as things progress. For a high-level summary of the House-passed reconciliation bill, see our May 22 update. For a rundown on the reconciliation process Congress is using to advance this megabill, see The Basics of Budget Reconciliation.